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Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi's Blog

Iran's Strikes on Israel

I am sure many of my readers were up late last night live-tracking the strikes by Iran and its 'axis of resistance' against Israel in retaliation for the Israeli bombing of the Iranian consulate in Damascus. The strikes themselves were bigger in scale than might have been expected but were nonetheless calibrated, with Iran considering its response to be sufficient if the response deters future Israeli strikes on Iranian targets.

In light of the unprecedented nature of the strikes on Israel, it is tempting to carry headlines about how the fate of the entire Middle East supposedly hangs on the edge. Yet this sort of talk is very sensationalist. The prospect of an all-out regional war is still far-fetched, simply because neither Israel nor Iran wants it. Ultimately, as Jonathan Spyer has pointed out, the Iranian and 'resistance axis' long-term strategy regarding Israel is not that a major regional war needs to be launched or that nuclear weapons need to be acquired for the purpose of striking and wiping out Israel in one massive blow . Rather, the logic is that Israel is seen as internally weak and fragile (hence the common refrain that Israel is supposedly 'weaker than a spider's web') and thus continual pressure without launching an all-out regional war can eventually induce Israel's collapse. There is no reason to think that this logic has changed. In this context also, Iran's drive to acquire nuclear weapons or nuclear weapons manufacturing capability should be seen as motivated by a desire to establish deterrence against disruption of its activities and those of its regional allies.

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By Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi  |  Sun, April 14, 2024  |  Permalink

The Escalation in Islamic State Operations Against the Syrian Democratic Forces

In queries I have received over the years, I have often been asked if an Islamic State attack or set of attacks over a short-time span in Iraq and/or Syria constituted a 'resurgence' for the group. In general, I do not believe that this sort of framing is the right word, because then the following question arises: what exactly does 'resurgence' mean? Does it mean a revival on the path towards recreating the peak of the group's fortunes in the 2014-2015 period when it seized and controlled substantial amounts of territory spanning the Iraq and Syria borders? This is of course ultimately how the Islamic State frames its general insurgent strategy: namely, that through persistence in waging jihad, it can gradually wear down its enemies to the point of inducing a rapid collapse and swift conquest, similar to what happened with the takeover of Mosul and other areas in Iraq and Syria in the summer of 2014.

Yet few would argue that the Islamic State is close to realising such a goal. Rather than speaking of 'resurgence', it is more useful to ask for a given period in Iraq and/or Syria: has there been an escalation in the scale of the Islamic State's insurgent activities? In the case of Syria, in the recent period (in particular since the beginning of this year), there is good evidence for an escalation in the Islamic State's insurgent activities, in the areas spanning those controlled by the Syrian government and the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in central, eastern and northeastern Syria, as will be explained below.

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By Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi  |  Fri, April 12, 2024  |  Permalink

Report: al-Quds Day in the Aleppo Area

This year, 5 April was the world "al-Quds Day" ("Jerusalem Day"): an event organised by Iran in the name of supporting the Palestinian cause. Armed factions across the region that are backed by Iran are known to put on displays and events for al-Quds Day. This includes groups within the Local Defence Forces network (LDF) in Syria. The Aleppo region is arguably the epicentre of the LDF and al-Quds Day activity was well in evidence there. Below are some observations on the event in the Aleppo area this year.

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By Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi  |  Mon, April 8, 2024  |  Permalink

The Turkestan Islamic Party's New Call for Jihad Against China

The Turkestan Islamic Party (TIP), an Uyghur Islamic group that has a Central Asia-based central leadership as well as a Syria branch, has issued a new statement addressed to the people of East Turkestan (the Xinjiang region in western China where the Uyghurs live). The statement denounces some Uyghur oppositionists who have recently accused the TIP of being linked to al-Qa'ida and serving the interest of the Chinese government. The TIP instead portrays itself as equivalent to the 'armed forces' of the Uyghur people, striving for the liberation of East Turkestan through the only viable means: namely, armed force.

The United States' delisting of TIP as a terrorist organisation is portrayed as part of God's cosmic law of "mutual repulsion among the people." This is a reference to Qur'an 2:251, and the idea is that God has conflicting groups of people fight each other in order to keep them in check. Officially, what the United States delisted in 2020 was the "East Turkestan Islamic Movement" (ETIM), but in practice the name of ETIM has been associated with TIP. The delisting was to the considerable irritation of China, so what TIP appears to be saying is that the delisting is part of the Americans and Chinese keeping each other in check, as part of deliverance for the Uyghur people.

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By Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi  |  Sun, April 7, 2024 12:15 PM  |  Permalink

Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham and the Druze of Jabal al-Summaq

The insurgent faction Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham, which dominates the areas of northwest Syria outside of Syrian government control, has presently been rocked by the assassination of Abu Mariya al-Qahtani, an Iraq-born leader of the organisation who had been detained by the group's security apparatus on various charges, including 'collaboration' with the Americans, but was subsequently released last month on the basis that the allegations against him were not proven.

While I have no definitive information on these matters, it is my impression that there was something to the allegations that he collaborated with the Americans in that he may well have passed information to them about the whereabouts of some senior members of the al-Qa'ida-loyalist Hurras al-Din, who were then eliminated in American airstrikes. This would not be surprising if it could be proven: after all, Qahtani not only opposed the Islamic State but also came to see al-Qa'ida's brand as a liability for Islamic causes around the world, urging the group's affiliates to abandon al-Qa'ida just as Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham had broken ties with al-Qa'ida.

As to why Qahtani was released, it is my impression that there was internal and external pressure on Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham's leader Abu Muhammad al-Jowlani to do so, whatever the allegations and the evidence for them against Qahtani. The assassination of Qahtani is officially being portrayed as the work of an Islamic State suicide bomber: plausible if the assassin intended to commit a suicide bombing. But a more targeted method of killing would leave a more open question of the perpetrator, including the possibility of Jowlani eliminating a perceived internal threat from Qahtani and his support base. A truly definitive resolution of this question may never come to light, just as no one knows for sure who, if anyone, was responsible for the killing of many of Salafi insurgent group Ahrar al-Sham's first generation of leaders nearly ten years ago.

All these matters aside, I did want to highlight a less noticed recent development: namely, a small positive change in Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham's treatment of the Druze minority in the Jabal al-Summaq area of northern Idlib countryside.

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By Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi  |  Sat, April 6, 2024  |  Permalink

نبذة عن الضربات الإسرائيلية على الحرس الثوري وقوة الرضوان في سوريا

على الرغم من أنّ معظم الناس في العالم ينظرون الى الضربات الإسرائيلية على غزة ويستنكرنها بشدة، إلا أنّهم ما زالوا يعتبرون الضربات الإسرائيلية على سوريا بمثابة النشرة الجوية اليومية. ومما لا شك فيه أنّ هذه الضربات تستمر لأنّ المحاسبة على مستوى العالم معدومة.

في هذا المنشور أقدم لكم نبذة عن الضربات في الفترة الأخيرة وارتقاء المقاتلين من صفوف الأصدقاء (اي الحرس الثوري الإيراني والمقاومة الإسلامية- حزب الله) وقوات الأصدقاء، وكل هذا من أجل سجلات التاريخ.

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By أيمن جواد التميمي  |  Tue, April 2, 2024 1:35 PM  |  Permalink

Overview of Some Recent Israeli Strikes on the IRGC and Hezbollah in Syria

Recently, Israel has carried out airstrikes on a wide-scale across Syrian government territory, hitting targets of both Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Hezbollah. The most prominent of these strikes came yesterday with the hit on the area of the Iranian consulate in Damascus. This strike most notably killed General Muhammad Reza Zahedi (al-Hajj Abu Mahdi), who has been described as the head of the IRGC's Quds Force in Syria and Lebanon. In the Syrian context, this meant that he served as the overall IRGC head of the Local Defence Forces (LDF) network. This network, also known as the 'Forces of the Friends' (Quwat al-Asdiqa') is the project of Syrian groups backed and commanded by IRGC and Hezbollah personnel in coordination with the Syrian military.

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By Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi  |  Tue, April 2, 2024 12:52 PM  |  Permalink

Richard Dawkins and 'Cultural Christianity'

An interview clip with Richard Dawkins on LBC in which the prominent atheist declared himself to be a 'cultural Christian' is presently doing the rounds on social media. Expressing dismay at the promotion of Ramadan instead of Easter in Britain, Dawkins noted that if he had to choose between Christianity and Islam, he would choose Christianity every time.

These remarks have provoked a wave of outrage and surprise. "There's something deeply ironic about Richard Dawkins, who spent decades undermining Christianity, now saying he is a 'cultural Christian' who 'likes living in a Christian country,' and is 'horrified' to see Islam rising in Christianity's place," proclaimed one editor. The 'luxury communist' thinker Aaron Bastani similarly wrote: "Bizarre from Dawkins, who wrote a book called 'The God Delusion' claiming religion was a deeply malevolent, dividing force in the world. Now he's calling himself a 'cultural Christian'? Find it odd to use religion to extend your secular political points." Murtaza Hussain of The Intercept accused Dawkins of shifting his position after participating in a "ruthless cultural war against Christianity" and only "belatedly" realising his mistake. Even the prominent historian Tom Holland, who seems more understanding of Dawkins' perspective, is under the impression that Dawkins has only recently begun to shift his views.

If only people's memories went beyond the latest clip to go viral. The reality is that Dawkins' advocacy of 'cultural Christianity' over Islam is nothing new or bizarre, and to accuse him of having waged a 'cultural war' on Christianity is off the mark. I observe this point because I distinctly remember reading Dawkins' 2006 book The God Delusion back when it was first released.

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By Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi  |  Mon, April 1, 2024  |  Permalink

New Speech by Islamic State Spokesman Abu Hudhayfa al-Ansari: "By God this matter will be fulfilled"

On Thursday evening, the Islamic State's al-Furqan Media released a new speech by spokesman Abu Hudhayfa al-Ansari, intended to commemorate ten Islamic calendar years since the Islamic State's announcement of the Caliphate. The following post presents a summary overview and a full translation of the speech. The main points of note are as follows:

. Much of the initial messaging is predictable about how the U.S. and its allies in the coalition against the Islamic State have failed to destroy the group despite all the effort made in the military campaign against it in Iraq and Syria. Whereas the key selling point was the territorial caliphate governing swaths of Iraq and Syria, now it is the expansion of the Islamic State affiliates across the world from East Asia to Mozambique. The speech's ending is primarily a recapitulation of the theme of America's inability to defeat the Islamic State, with a reiteration that the epic battle of Dabiq will eventually come and Islam will eventually prevail.

. There are typical counsels to its own fighters to be pious, remember God and be steadfast, remembering that with tribulation and difficulty, triumph will eventually come.

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By Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi  |  Sun, March 31, 2024  |  Permalink

Islamic State al-Naba' Newsletter Report on the Moscow Attacks

As was predictable, the Islamic State's weekly al-Naba' newsletter has released a more detailed report on the Moscow attacks to follow on from the video footage and initial claims of responsibility. The report spans two pages and includes an infographic on the attack and previous Islamic State attacks launched against 'Crusader' countries like the United States, Belgium, Russia (most notably the downing of an aircraft carrying Russian tourists in Sinai) and Sri Lanka. Oddly, the Islamic State still formally claims the October 1, 2017 mass shooting in Las Vegas, despite the fact that neither the Islamic State nor subsequent investigation has produced any convincing evidence that the perpetrator was an Islamic State adherent or even a Muslim. Still though, there is no reason to doubt the Islamic State connection in the Moscow attacks or in the other incidents mentioned in the infographic. The attack is celebrated as coinciding with a decade since the establishment of the Caliphate according to the Islamic calendar.

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By Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi  |  Fri, March 29, 2024  |  Permalink

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