What if Islamic State's Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was killed?

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This was published 8 years ago

What if Islamic State's Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was killed?

By Ruth Pollard
Updated

Beirut: With the fate of the reclusive leader of the Islamic State, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi still unknown, new information has emerged about the secretive terrorist group's finances.

Iraq's military said on Sunday air strikes had hit a convoy carrying him to a meeting near the Syrian border in the province of Anbar, though Iraqi security officials later denied this.

Eight senior IS leaders were reportedly killed in an air strike while meeting in a town in western Iraq, but Baghdadi did not appear to be among them, residents of the town and hospital sources told Reuters.

It is not the first time that Baghdadi has been reportedly hit in air strikes since he proclaimed himself the leader of the self-declared caliphate known as Islamic State in June 2014.

Information on Islamic State's finances has revealed its oil revenue is in the millions of dollars, not tens of millions.

Information on Islamic State's finances has revealed its oil revenue is in the millions of dollars, not tens of millions.Credit: AP

In November 2014 he was allegedly killed in US coalition air strikes and again in May 2015 he was reportedly wounded in a US air strike near Mosul in the north of Iraq. The US has posted a $US10 million ($13.59 million) reward for information that could lead to his capture.

Each time there is speculation that he has been killed, experts have indicated a new leader would be appointed without delay, drawn from IS's ranks of al-Qaeda veterans and former Iraqi army and Baathist officials.

An IS fighter told Reuters: "Even if he was martyred then it will not affect Islamic State. We will lose a leader but there are a thousand Baghdadis."

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In the meantime, new information has emerged about IS funding, showing the majority of revenue in its Deir al-Zor stronghold in eastern Syria comes from property, money and other assets it has confiscated from citizens.

Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi has previously been reported killed, only for it to emerge he was alive.

Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi has previously been reported killed, only for it to emerge he was alive.Credit: AP

While many have accused private Gulf Arab funding as the financial strength behind IS, it appears most of its revenue comes from taxation, sales of oil and gas and antiquities, Aymenn Jawad al-Tamimi, a fellow at Britain's Middle East Forum, says.

He has released documents obtained from IS's Diwan Bayt al-Mal or finance ministry in the Syrian province of Deir al-Zor, showing budgets for December 23, 2014 to January 22, 2015.

Dead or alive? Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.

Dead or alive? Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.Credit: AP

Deir al-Zor has been almost entirely under the control of IS since July 2014 (the Syrian regime holds parts of the city of Deir al-Zor as well as the military airport).

The documents show a revenue breakdown: confiscations – 47 per cent, oil and gas – 27.7 per cent, taxes 23.7 per cent and electricity 3.9 per cent.

Even if he was martyred then it will not affect Islamic State. We will lose a leader but there are a thousand Baghdadis.

Islamic State fighter

"These sources of revenue by no means constitute the majority of IS's income in the province," Mr Tamimi says.

Instead, most comes from "confiscations of property and money ... [from] residents who fled their homes, violations of IS regulations and illicit smuggling of goods, particularly forbidden items like cigarettes and alcohol".

"In defeating the rebels in Deir al-Zor province, IS has gained a monopoly on oil and gas resources in the province," Mr Tamimi writes. "It undoubtedly constitutes the largest pool of oil and gas resources in Syria that IS has been able to exploit."

The revenue from IS's richest province in fossil fuels comes in at millions of dollars a month, not tens or hundreds of millions, he says.

Meanwhile, most of its expenditure goes towards military bases and fighters' salaries, the documents show.

Mr Tamimi says another significant revenue stream for IS is the fee civilians pay for "repentance", or tawba in Arabic.

IS officers issue "repentance documents" to indicate a person has "abandoned his or her apostasy and is to be treated like the rest of the Muslim populace", Mr Tamimi writes.

If a person affiliated with rival forces surrenders all weapons his life is spared – this usually includes members of Syrian rebel groups, Sunni conscripts to the Syrian army, and members of the Iraqi army and police.

"It also turns out that repentance is apparently a source of revenue for IS, as a fee is charged for the initial act of repentance with additional payment required for subsequent 'renewal' of repentance," Mr Tamimi says on his blog.

"It appears the sums are quite hefty and have contributed to the harsh negative impact on living standards, which will only be compounded by the most recent Iraqi government decision to stop direct salary payments to employees in areas controlled by IS."

The fee for repentance is reportedly between $US1000 and $US2500, with an additional $US200 charged for "renewal" of the repentance document.

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